What is war analysis?
War analysis is the structured study of the forces, conditions and decisions that shape a conflict. A useful assessment separates observable information—such as military expenditure, personnel, equipment, geography and alliances—from assumptions about readiness, logistics, political objectives and uncertainty. It then explains how those inputs affect the result.
Global Power Intel brings several parts of that work into one browser-based platform: a global conflict map, country capability profiles, military equipment references, geopolitical risk tools and a scenario model. The tools support comparison and discussion. They do not replace expert judgement or verified reporting.
Compare scenarios, not just rankings
A country ranking cannot by itself answer who would prevail in a war. Outcomes depend on the type of conflict, the forces actually available, geography, sustainment, external support and political choices. RiskAnalys Pro lets the user select opposing actors and allies, choose a conflict type, set uncertainty and record assumptions before running a Monte Carlo comparison.
The model combines weighted factors such as readiness, logistics, economic endurance, air, land and naval capability, technology, geography and resilience. Coalition support is reduced according to the chosen level. Results are presented as a relative model distribution, including an uncertainty or draw zone. The score describes the model's assumptions; it is not an objective probability that a real war will end a particular way.
Sources and confidence
Country profiles bring together open economic and defence indicators and references to specialist sources. Depending on the field, the platform points to sources such as the World Bank, SIPRI, IISS, UNROCA, FAS and verified open references. Years and source links are shown where available. Equipment figures can be incomplete or estimates, and different sources may use different definitions.
When adequate data cannot be retrieved for a scenario, the application is designed to stop rather than fill the gap with a neutral-looking score. Users can review inputs, adjust assumptions and keep source notes with their analysis. This makes the result easier to challenge and reproduce.
A practical way to use a war scenario model
- Select the countries or actors relevant to the question.
- Review the available source year and confidence for each capability profile.
- Specify the conflict type, defending side, allies and support assumptions.
- Choose an uncertainty range that reflects missing or disputed information.
- Compare the result under different assumptions and explain what changed.
Related tools
Use the global conflict map for a geographic overview, or the geopolitical risk analysis guide to structure wider political and security risks. For Swedish-language information, see krigsanalys och krigsscenarier.